SKILL.md
Market Scenario Modeler Skill
When to Use
- Translating research findings into financial models and strategic scenarios.
- Stress-testing revenue or adoption assumptions for planning cycles.
- Packaging insights for finance, product, and executive stakeholders.
Framework
- Assumption Library – document data sources, CAGR, penetration, pricing, channel mix.
- Scenario Matrix – base, upside, downside cases with drivers (pricing, win rate, expansion, macro).
- Sensitivity Analysis – tornado charts, Monte Carlo snippets, or sliders for key variables.
- Visualization Layer – waterfall, area, and heat maps tying numbers to narratives.
- Decision Hooks – highlight trigger points, required investments, and guardrails.
Templates
- Spreadsheet/notebook skeleton with clearly named inputs/outputs.
- Slide templates for TAM/SAM/SOM, share shifts, and investment asks.
- One-pager summary translating scenarios into actions and risks.
Tips
- Keep assumptions auditable with source links and timestamps.
- Align with finance on currency, inflation, and exchange assumptions before publishing.
- Pair with
run-market-landscape-studyfor turnkey modeling assets.