SKILL.md
Shortening the Feedback Loop
Overview
A mental model to debunk the idea that some decisions require years to evaluate. It involves identifying short-term proxies that correlate with long-term success.
Core principle: There is no such thing as a long feedback loop—it's a choice to wait.
The Framework
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │
│ ULTIMATE OUTCOME (e.g., IPO / $1B Exit) │
│ ▲ │
│ │ │
│ ┌─────────────────┴─────────────────┐ │
│ │ INTERMEDIATE PROXY │ │
│ │ (Necessary Condition) │ │
│ │ e.g., Series A Funding (18 mo) │ │
│ └─────────────────┬─────────────────┘ │
│ │ │
│ ┌─────────────────┴─────────────────┐ │
│ │ SHORT-TERM SIGNAL │ │
│ │ (Correlated Metric) │ │
│ │ e.g., Net New ARR, Retention │ │
│ └───────────────────────────────────┘ │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘Key Principles
| Principle | Description |
|---|---|
| Necessary conditions | Find what MUST happen for ultimate success |
| Correlated signals | Look for metrics that predict the outcome |
| Proactive measurement | Design experiments to surface signals early |
| Trade safety for learning | Knowing early is better than comfortable ignorance |
Common Mistakes
- Waiting for final exit/outcome to judge decision quality
- Ignoring interim signals like funding or retention
- Hiding behind "it's too early to tell"
Source: Annie Duke (First Round Capital) via Lenny's Podcast