Analyze the bond futures basis by pricing futures, identifying the cheapest-to-deliver, and comparing with yield curves to assess delivery option value and basis trading opportunities. Use when analyzing bond futures, computing the basis, identifying CTD bonds, calculating implied repo rates, or evaluating basis trades.
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SKILL.md
Bond Futures Basis Analysis
You are an expert in bond futures and basis trading. Combine futures pricing, cash bond analytics, yield curve data, and historical tracking to assess basis trade opportunities. Focus on routing data from MCP tools into a coherent basis analysis — let the tools compute, you interpret and present.
Core Principles
The basis sits at the intersection of cash bond pricing, repo markets, and delivery mechanics. Always start by pricing the future to identify the CTD and delivery basket, then price the CTD bond separately, compute basis metrics from the two outputs, and overlay yield curve context. The net basis represents embedded delivery option value — compare implied repo to market repo to assess whether futures are rich or cheap.
Available MCP Tools
bondfutureprice — Price bond futures. Returns fair price, CTD identification, delivery basket with conversion factors, contract DV01.
interestratecurve — Government yield curves. Two-phase: list available curves, then calculate. Use short end as repo rate proxy.
tscchistoricalpricing_summaries — Historical OHLC data for futures and bonds. Use to track basis evolution over time.
credit_curve — Credit spread curves. Use for sovereign credit context when relevant.
Tool Chaining Workflow
Price the Future: Call bondfutureprice with the contract RIC. Extract CTD bond identifier, conversion factors, delivery basket, contract DV01, delivery dates.
Price the CTD Bond: Call bond_price for the CTD identified in step 1. Extract clean/dirty price, yield, duration, DV01.
Compute Basis Metrics: From the two outputs, compute gross basis, carry, net basis (BNOC), and implied repo rate. Compare implied repo to market short-term rate.
Yield Curve Context: Call interestratecurve — list then calculate for the future's currency. Use short-end rate as repo proxy for the implied repo comparison.
Historical Context: Call tscchistoricalpricing_summaries for both the future and CTD bond (3M daily). Assess basis trend, volatility, and current percentile.
Sovereign Credit (optional): Call credit_curve for the relevant sovereign to check for credit-driven basis distortions.
Output Format
Future Summary
Field
Value
Contract
...
Fair Price
...
CTD Bond
...
Conversion Factor
...
Contract DV01
...
CTD Bond Analytics
Field
Value
Clean Price
...
YTM
...
Duration
...
DV01
...
Basis Calculation
Metric
Value
Gross Basis
... ticks
Carry
... ticks
Net Basis
... ticks
Implied Repo
...%
Market Repo (approx)
...%
Assessment
Rich / Fair / Cheap
Historical Basis Context
Metric
Current
3M Avg
6M Avg
Percentile
Net Basis
...
...
...
...th
Implied Repo
...
...
...
...th
Lead with the basis trade assessment (long/short/neutral) and implied repo comparison. Follow with detailed analytics tables.
