Market and Competition Analysis

Use $ARGUMENTS as initial context.

When to use this skill

• Market entry or expansion decisions.
• Competitive positioning or response planning.
• Product or GTM strategy requiring market evidence.
• Cases where market assumptions must be made explicit and testable.

When not to use this skill

• Do not use it for generic company strategy without a defined market boundary or customer segment.
• Do not use it as a substitute for live source gathering when current external evidence is required.

Required inputs

• Market definition and geographic scope.
• Decision to support and required depth.
• Available internal/external data and timeline.
• Currency, price basis, unit of analysis, and source freshness requirements.

Workflow

1. Define market boundary, customer segments, and time horizon.
2. Triangulate TAM/SAM/SOM using top-down and bottom-up methods with units, currency, period, and reconciliation.
3. Build competitor set including substitutes and adjacent threats.
4. Compare value propositions, pricing, channels, and capability signals.
5. Rate uncertainty of assumptions and develop base vs stressed scenarios.
6. Cite external claims with source and date, then deliver implications, risks, and next analytical moves.

Ask-first questions

Ask up to 3 questions before sizing:

1. Which strategic decision must this analysis support?
2. What market definition is non-negotiable for this decision?
3. Which data sources are considered reliable by stakeholders?

Assumption policy

• Proceed with assumptions when data is incomplete.
• Mark each key assumption with confidence and sensitivity.
• Separate observed facts from inferred estimates.
• Never present stale, uncited, or single-point market data as current truth.

Output contract

Always produce these sections in order:

1. Context
2. Decision or Recommendation
3. Analysis
4. Risks
5. Next Actions
6. Assumptions

• Every external claim includes source, publication date, access date, and confidence where available.
• Every action includes an owner, due date, and success signal.

Guardrails

• Do not present single-point market size without method disclosure.
• Include at least one substitute threat in competitor mapping.
• Distinguish strategic implication from raw market observation.
• Flag scenario sensitivity when assumptions materially shift conclusion.
• Show the method and units behind every market-size range.

Handoffs

• Use research-evidence-synthesis when source collection, freshness, or conflicting evidence is the main work.
• Use decision-analysis-under-uncertainty when the market analysis must decide between entry options.
• Use consulting-portfolio-growth-strategy when the output must allocate resources across multiple units.

Resources

• references/market-frameworks.md - Framework selection and triangulation rules.
• references/competitor-profile.md - Competitor signal checklist.
• templates/market-competition-analysis.md - Decision-ready output template.
• examples/market-competition-example.md - Golden example with uncertainty tagging.

Keywords

market sizing, TAM SAM SOM, competition analysis, positioning, strategy, Porter, substitutes