Prediction markets

Goal

Search prediction markets, buy and sell outcome shares, track positions and PnL.

Supports two providers:

• Polymarket — runs on Polygon (USDC.e). Requires an EVM wallet.
• Kalshi — runs on Solana (USDC). Requires a Solana wallet.

Prerequisites

1. Authenticate: mp login --email <email> then mp verify --email <email> --code <code>
2. Have a local wallet: mp wallet list (create with mp wallet create --name "main" if needed)
3. Register your wallet with the provider (one-time setup):

# For Polymarket (use your EVM/Polygon address)
mp prediction-market user create --provider polymarket --wallet <evm-address>

# For Kalshi (use your Solana address)
mp prediction-market user create --provider kalshi --wallet <solana-address>

1. Fund the wallet — Polymarket needs USDC.e on Polygon, Kalshi needs USDC on Solana. See the moonpay-fund-polymarket or moonpay-buy-crypto skills.

Browse and research markets

# Search markets by keyword
mp prediction-market market search --provider polymarket --query "bitcoin" --limit 10

# Get trending markets (sorted by 24h volume, min $150K)
mp prediction-market market trending list --provider polymarket --limit 10

# Browse market categories/tags
mp prediction-market market tag list --provider polymarket

# Filter markets by tag
mp prediction-market market search --provider polymarket --query "*" --tagIds "crypto,politics"

# Get full event details (all markets, outcomes, prices)
mp prediction-market market event retrieve --provider polymarket --slug <event-slug>

# Check current price for an outcome token
mp prediction-market market price retrieve --provider polymarket --tokenId <token-id>

# View price history for an outcome
mp prediction-market market price-history list --provider polymarket --tokenId <token-id> --interval 1w

Buy and sell positions

# Buy shares of an outcome
mp prediction-market position buy \
  --wallet main \
  --provider polymarket \
  --tokenId <outcome-token-id> \
  --price 0.65 \
  --size 100

# Sell shares
mp prediction-market position sell \
  --wallet main \
  --provider polymarket \
  --tokenId <outcome-token-id> \
  --price 0.70 \
  --size 50

Key concepts:

• tokenId comes from outcomeTokens[].tokenId in market search results
• price is 0-1 (e.g., 0.65 = 65 cents per share, implies 65% probability)
• size is the number of shares
• Cost = price x size (e.g., 0.65 x 100 = $65 USDC)
• If the outcome resolves YES, each share pays $1. Profit = (1 - price) x size

Track positions and performance

# View open positions
mp prediction-market position list --provider polymarket --wallet <address>

# View closed positions
mp prediction-market position list --provider polymarket --wallet <address> --status closed

# Get PnL summary
mp prediction-market pnl retrieve --provider polymarket --wallet <address>

# View trade history
mp prediction-market trade list --provider polymarket --wallet <address>

# View all activity (trades, splits, merges, redemptions)
mp prediction-market activity list --provider polymarket --wallet <address>

Workflow

1. Discover: Search or browse trending markets.
2. Research: Get event details, check prices, review price history.
3. Trade: Buy shares on outcomes you believe are mispriced.
4. Monitor: Track positions and PnL.
5. Exit: Sell positions when your thesis changes, or wait for resolution.

Example: trade a market

# 1. Find a market
mp prediction-market market search --provider polymarket --query "bitcoin 100k"

# 2. Get event details (note the outcomeTokens)
mp prediction-market market event retrieve --provider polymarket --slug <slug-from-search>

# 3. Check price history
mp prediction-market market price-history list --provider polymarket --tokenId <yes-token-id> --interval 1w

# 4. Buy 50 "Yes" shares at 40 cents
mp prediction-market position buy --wallet main --provider polymarket --tokenId <yes-token-id> --price 0.40 --size 50

# 5. Check your position
mp prediction-market position list --provider polymarket --wallet <address>

# 6. Sell later at a higher price
mp prediction-market position sell --wallet main --provider polymarket --tokenId <yes-token-id> --price 0.60 --size 50

Price history intervals

Tips

• Use mp --json prediction-market ... for programmatic output
• Markets with higher volume and liquidity have tighter spreads
• Check acceptingOrders — closed markets cannot be traded
• negRisk markets use a different settlement framework — the CLI handles this automatically
• Polymarket uses USDC.e on Polygon; Kalshi uses USDC on Solana

Related skills

• moonpay-fund-polymarket — Fund your Polymarket wallet with USDC.e and POL
• moonpay-check-wallet — Check Polygon/Solana balances
• moonpay-swap-tokens — Bridge tokens to Polygon
• moonpay-trading-automation — Automate trading strategies