Analyze Metrics

Overview

Review product metrics against targets, identify trends across cohorts, distinguish leading from lagging indicators, and generate hypotheses for unexpected changes. Turns raw numbers into actionable insight.

Workflow

1. Read metrics context — Scan .chalk/docs/product/ for any metrics framework, KPI definitions, or previous metrics reviews. Identify which metrics have defined targets and baselines.

1. Gather metrics data — Parse $ARGUMENTS for the specific metrics or period to analyze. If the user provides data inline or references a file, read it. If no data is provided, ask the user to supply current metric values.

1. Classify each metric — For each metric, determine:

- Type: leading (predictive) vs. lagging (outcome) - Category: acquisition, activation, engagement, retention, revenue, referral - Comparison basis: target value, previous period, cohort benchmark

1. Assess current vs. target — Compare each metric's current value against its target. Classify as: on-track (within 10%), at-risk (10-25% off), or off-track (>25% off). If no target exists, note the gap.

1. Identify trends — For each metric with historical data, classify the trend: improving, stable, or declining. Note acceleration or deceleration (is improvement slowing down?). Flag inflection points.

1. Cohort comparison — Where cohort data is available, compare across user segments (new vs. returning, plan tiers, acquisition channels). Identify cohorts that outperform or underperform the average.

1. Generate hypotheses — For any metric that is off-track or shows unexpected changes, propose 2-3 hypotheses for the cause. Each hypothesis should be testable. Connect to recent product changes, market events, or seasonal patterns.

1. Identify metric relationships — Flag leading indicators that predict lagging indicator changes. Note correlations and potential causal chains.

1. Determine the next file number — Read filenames in .chalk/docs/product/ to find the highest numbered file. Use highest + 1.

1. Write the review — Save to .chalk/docs/product/<n>metricsreview_<period>.md.

Output

• File: .chalk/docs/product/<n>metricsreview_<period>.md
• Format: Markdown with a health dashboard table and detailed metric sections
• Key sections: Health Summary Table (metric / current / target / status / trend), Detailed Analysis per metric, Cohort Insights, Hypotheses for Off-Track Metrics, Recommended Actions

Anti-patterns

• Vanity metrics without context — Reporting "10K signups" without conversion rate, activation rate, or retention is misleading. Always pair volume metrics with quality metrics.
• Confusing correlation with causation — "We launched feature X and signups went up" is a correlation, not a causal claim. Always note confounders and suggest experiments to validate.
• Ignoring leading indicators — Only reviewing lagging indicators (revenue, churn) means you are looking in the rearview mirror. Prioritize leading indicators that let you act before outcomes materialize.
• Reporting without hypotheses — Stating "retention dropped 5%" without proposing why is not analysis. Every unexpected change needs at least one testable hypothesis.
• Missing cohort breakdowns — Aggregate metrics hide important variation. A stable overall retention rate can mask declining retention in new cohorts offset by strong retention in old cohorts.