Investment Thesis Synthesis

Use this skill at the end of a research workflow. It should transform evidence into a decision-support artifact while keeping facts, interpretation, and action options separate.

Workflow

1. Load the target profile, archive index, and relevant evidence notes.
2. Check source coverage before writing the thesis.
3. Extract high-confidence facts and unresolved contradictions.
4. Build bull, base, and bear cases from evidence.
5. Create a risk register with probability, impact, evidence, and mitigants when

known.

1. Produce watch items and catalysts that can update the thesis later.
2. Save the artifact under

research/targets/<target>/artifacts/decision-frames/ or research/targets/<target>/artifacts/memos/.

Read references/thesis-frame-template.md before writing the final artifact.

Output

Return:

• evidence coverage summary
• bull, base, and bear cases
• risk register
• open questions
• watchlist triggers
• decision frame with user-controlled options
• archive files created or updated

Quality Gate

Before finishing:

• every material claim links to evidence or is labeled as inference
• missing evidence is visible in the coverage summary
• facts and interpretation are separated
• no single opaque buy/sell recommendation is presented as truth
• decision language preserves user control and avoids certainty about returns